Formula 1: A Mid-Term Report and what’s to come…

It’s mid August and the Formula 1 off-season is in full swing. While the drivers are out trying to find the nearest beach, we’ve crunched the numbers and here are our biggest successes and underachievers, as well as how we think the season will play out after the summer break.

Success Stories       

Max Verstappen in Austria, 2019
Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Drivers: 1. Max Verstappen

2. Kimi Raikkonen

3. Carlos Sainz

These three have been on fire all season. Max Verstappen has been the standout driver this year, with his consistent finishing and brilliant extraction of everything from the car. With his lowest finish of the season being 5^th, whilst stuck in the 3^rd best car (where a good usage of the car would land him 5^th) coupled with his two wins in Austria and Germany, have made Max Lewis’s biggest threat coming into the summer break.

Meanwhile, Raikkonen and Sainz have turned into midfield kings with their consistent point scoring and performance against their teammates. Raikkonen has consistently beaten Giovinazzi throughout the season, scoring 31 points to Giovinazzi’s 1. Sainz has also performed well against the impressive rookie Norris, with Sainz leading the “Meme Lord” by 34 points, (however, Norris has experienced bad luck and mechanical difficulties with his McLaren this season).

Honourable Mentions: George Russell, Lando Norris, Lewis Hamilton

Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Teams: 1. Mercedes 

              2. Red Bull

              3. McLaren

What can you say about Mercedes? The Silver Arrows starship has turned its rocket boost on this season, once again delivering a stunning racing package and leaving Ferrari with egg on their faces. For the vast majority of the year, ignoring a hiccup of a weekend at Hockenheim, Mercedes have been the team setting the standard for the rest of the field, having improved their pace in medium speed corners whilst maintaining a good straight line speed, enabling them to compete with Red Bull at street and tight circuits.

The Red Bull team have made huge strides this year, with their most successful season so far since 2013. The Honda power engine’s potential has been unlocked and in recent races we have seen the car’s potential with this power boost as Verstappen pushed the Mercedes of Hamilton in Hungary. The team’s pit stops have also been immaculate, with them recording several sub two second stops in recent weeks.

McLaren have seen a huge resurgence this season, with them being the fourth quickest team at several grand prixs and Carlos Sainz has consistently beaten Pierre Gasly to sixth place in the quicker Red Bull. Lando Norris has also been at the front of the midfield when not out of races through mechanical failures and the McLaren team have seen a big boost in not only performance but spirit with a good start to this season.

Underachievers

Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Drivers: 1. Pierre Gasly

               2. Antonio Giovinazzi

               3. Robert Kubica

Poor Pierre Gasly really has had a horror show of a season, right from his poor Australia qualifying to the twilight of his final Red Bull race where he crashed into Alexander Albon. For whatever reason, Gasly just has not been able to unlock the performance of the Red Bull, which isn’t helped by having Max Verstappen as your team mate. Despite this, Gasly has consistently been stuck in the midfield, only in Silverstone producing enough pace to stay with the top five, and this, ultimately, is what has seen Albon take his race seat.  

Giovinazzi and Kubica have both had disappointing seasons, partly down to having amazing team mates which makes their efforts appear even worse. Giovinazzi’s team mate Raikkonen has demolished him throughout the season, consistently extracting the most from the car and making Giovanazzi look quite sub-par, although he has upped his performances recently, for example in Germany. Meanwhile, the veteran Kubica has been humiliated by the British young gun George Russell, and sadly, the Pole has been off the pace against him for the entire year, most notably in his loss to Russell in every qualifying session this season.

Honourable Mentions: Lance Stroll, Kevin Magnussen, Romain Grosjean, Sebastian Vettel

Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Teams: 1. Ferrari

              2. Renault

              3. Haas

              4. Williams

Ferrari really have had a horror show this season. The supposed fastest car coming into Australia in actuality was a distance from Mercedes, and even when Charles Leclerc had the pace in Bahrain, his car let him down. Ferrari have been let down by bizarre and costly pit strategies and calls throughout the season, leading them to lose points to Red Bull, particularly Max Verstappen. Ferrari have lost pace in the corners and despite their straight line speed they cannot compete on a weekly basis with Mercedes. This was most evident in finishing a minute down at the Hungaroring a few weeks ago.

Renault were expected to improve on last season and, at the very least, lower the gap to the top three cars. However, in reality they have gone backwards and are now not even the best car in the fight for fourth in the constructors, losing that title to McLaren. Daniel Ricciardo must be shaking his head, knowing that the team he hoped would be challenging the top three soon is now being swamped by new midfield rivals like Toro Rosso, Racing Point, McLaren and Alfa Romeo.

Our End of Season Predictions

Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Belgian GP: 1^st Leclerc           Title: Hamilton 268pts

                     2^nd Hamilton                Bottas 198pts

                     3^rd Vettel                      Verstappen 193 pts

                     4^th Verstappen             Vettel  171pts  

                     5^th Bottas                      Leclerc 157pts

                     6^th Albon            

 The Belgian GP is commonly a tricky one to predict, however I think that the Ferrari power will see them through, with Leclerc collecting his first win. Hamilton will fight them though, coming in second and splitting the two Ferraris, with Verstappen in fourth and Bottas fifth. Learning the ropes of the Red Bull, Albon will likely come a distant sixth.

Hamilton in Italy in 2018
Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Italian GP: 1^st Vettel               Title: Hamilton 283pts

                   2^nd Leclerc                       Bottas 210pts

                   3^rd Hamilton                    Verstappen 203pts

                   4^th Bottas                         Vettel 196pts

                   5^th Verstappen                Leclerc 175pts

                   6^th Albon        

Ferrari and their power unit are likely to score a win in front of the tifosi in Italy. Hamilton and Bottas will be left to fight over 3^rd and 4^th as the Ferrari’s will have too much grunt. Verstappen and Albon will be left with 5^th and 6^th as the Honda power unit will not be able to keep touch with the Ferrari and Mercedes on the most power dependent track on the calendar. Also, don’t be surprised if a Williams gets out of Q1. If it would happen anywhere it would be here, with the Williams’s great engine.

Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Singarpore GP: 1^st Verstappen    Title: Hamilton 301pts

                            2^nd Hamilton                 Verstappen 228pts

                            3^rd  Albon                       Bottas 222pts

                            4^th Bottas                       Vettel 204pts

                            5^th Leclerc                      Leclerc 185pts

                            6^th  Vettel

With their better cornering abilities, it is likely a Red Bull will take the Singapore GP and with his scintillating form this year, I wouldn’t put it past Verstappen, with Hamilton running him close. Albon would not be far behind in 3^rd, with Bottas 4^th, and the Ferraris bringing up the rear on a track where their slow cornering cars will hinder them.

Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Russian GP: 1^st Vettel              Title: Hamilton 319pts

                       2^nd Hamilton                 Verstappen 243pts

                       3^rd Verstappen             Bottas 232pts

                       4^th Leclerc                      Vettel 229pts

                       5^th Bottas                       Leclerc 195pts

                       6^th Albon                  

The Russian GP could follow the blueprint of the Canadian GP, with Vettel and Hamilton very close throughout the race. I think Vettel will win this battle, with Hamilton not wanting to risk his championship position. With a 76 point lead, Hamilton almost has it sewn up with 125 left up for grabs. Verstappen and Leclerc will fight it out for third, with Bottas and Albon left with 5^th and 6^th.

The start of the 2012 Japanese GP
Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Japanese GP: 1^st Verstappen    Title: Hamilton 337pts

                         2^nd Hamilton                 Verstappen 268pts

                         3^rd Albon                       Bottas 244pts

                         4^th Bottas                      Vettel 237pts

                         5^th Leclerc                     Leclerc 205pts

                         6^th Vettel    

Just like last year, this will be another Verstappen-Hamilton showdown, with the Dutchman winning out this year and cutting Hamilton’s championship lead to 69pts. Another podium could be on for Albon, with the Red Bull being  traditionally quick at the twisty figure of eight track. The Ferrari will again be stuck in the mud as they struggle for grip and downforce on the sweeping and quick turns.

Mexico Pit Entry
Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Mexican GP: 1^st Verstappen        Title: Hamilton 355pts

                       2^nd Hamilton                      Verstappen 293pts

                       3^rd Vettel                            Bottas 252pts

                       4^th Albon                             Vettel 252pts

                       5^th Leclerc                           Leclerc 215pts

6th Bottas

Max Verstappen should continue his dominance at this track over recent years with another victory at the altitude track with Mercedes also benefitting from the 20% power reduction that comes from the altitude of the track. This will most badly affect Ferrari, however I feel the number of straights will give them at least one podium position here.

Crowds at COTA
Credit: Wikimedia Commons

US GP: 1^st Hamilton              Title: Hamilton 380pts

              2^nd Vettel                           Verstappen 305pts

              3^rd Leclerc                          Vettel 270pts

              4^th Verstappen                  Bottas 262pts

              5^th Bottas                           Leclerc 230pts

              6^th Albon         

At one of his favourite tracks, this is where Hamilton takes the win that secures his sixth world title as he will have a 75 point lead over Verstappen with only 50 left up for grabs. The COTA suits Ferrari well, but I feel that Hamilton will ride the wave of excitement and love of him from America, which will ultimately lead him to his sixth world title and proper discussion about the potential term of GOAT.

The title went down to the wire in Brazil in 2007….
Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Brazilian GP: 1^st Verstappen      Title: Hamilton 395pts

                        2^nd Bottas                        Verstappen 330pts

                        3^rd Hamilton                    Vettel 282pts

                        4^th Vettel                          Bottas 280pts

                         5^th Leclerc                        Leclerc 240pts

                         6^th Albon             

Unlike last year’s palava with Esteban Ocon, I believe Verstappen will make it 6 wins in 2019 with the Brazilian GP. Mercedes should also perform well on this shorter and twistier circuit, with the Ferrari’s once again struggling. At this point, the only championship battle is for third between Vettel and Bottas, as the Ferrari man has caught Bottas over the past few races.

Who will these fireworks be for come December?
Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Abu Dhabi GP: 1^st Hamilton       Title: Hamilton 420pts

                          2^nd Vettel                       Verstappen 345pts

                          3^rd Verstappen              Vettel 300pts

                          4^th Albon                        Bottas 290pts

                          5^th Bottas                       Leclerc 248pts

                           6^th Leclerc                     (Albon 108pts)

My predicted season ends just like last year’s did, with the three on the podium, Hamilton, Vettel and Verstappen, as the main three that have shaped the last decade of racing, (and potentially the decade to come(if you include the likes of Leclerc, Norris, Russell and Ocon). Vettel should beat Bottas to 3^rd and Leclerc will finish a distant 5^th in what has been a steep learning kerb for the Monegasque driver. Hamilton wins his sixth title comfortably, in the end, with a 75 point buffer to Max Verstappen.

How the season will really end? Nobody knows. The unpredictability of Formula 1 is what we watch it for. The crazy overtakes, the insane races (Germany comes to mind) and the surprising driver switches and team dynamics. What we know for sure is that this season has a lot more to give and it isn’t all over just yet…